The Intrinsic Value Podcast - The Investor’s Podcast Network

Shawn O’Malley and Daniel Mahncke revisit Shopify (NASDAQ: SHOP) fifteen months after Shawn pitched it, called it one of the best businesses they’d ever studied, and recommended passing on the stock at around $80 per share. Since then, the stock has nearly doubled, gross merchandise volume has grown more than 30% for five straight quarters, 2025 revenue rose 30% to over $11.5 billion, and Shopify paid off its convertible notes and launched its first-ever buyback program, now totaling $5 billion.

Shawn and Daniel grade their original analysis: what they got right about the business, what they got wrong about the numbers, and whether the decision-making process itself was flawed. They dig into how Shopify became central to agentic commerce through its Catalog of over a billion products, the Universal Commerce Protocol it co-developed with Google, and agentic storefronts inside ChatGPT, Gemini, and Copilot. They also cover Amazon blocking Meta’s Muse agent while Shopify partnered with it, the bear case that merchants will vibe-code their own stores, Sidekick’s rapid adoption, and whether a great business is worth owning at 112 times operating profits.

IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

(00:00:00) Intro

(00:00:57) How to grade an investment decision without falling for hindsight bias

(00:07:05) What Shawn and Daniel got right and wrong when they passed on Shopify in 2025

(00:13:55) How Shopify sustained more than 30% GMV growth for five straight quarters

(00:15:10) Why Shopify merchants captured nearly half of all new U.S. e-commerce dollars

(00:24:55) Valuation discussion of Shopify

(00:33:43) What agentic commerce is and how Shopify’s Catalog and Universal Commerce Protocol power it

(00:50:52) Why AI shopping may favor independent brands over Amazon and Etsy

(01:01:57) Why merchants are unlikely to vibe-code their way off Shopify

(01:10:38) What Ben Graham’s P/E matrix says Shopify is worth today

(01:13:52) Whether Shawn and Daniel will add Shopify to the Intrinsic Value Portfolio

Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.



BOOKS AND RESOURCES


If you are interested in a Community for investors to learn, share ideas, network, and join calls with experts: ⁠Apply for The Intrinsic Value Mastermind⁠.

If you are interested in more personal meet-ups, meeting superinvestors, and discussing investing and things that go beyond: ⁠Apply for The Mastermind: Inner Circle⁠.

Track ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Portfolio⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Our original podcast deep-dive on Shopify.

Shopify’s Q2 2026 results.

Shopify’s Spring ’26 Edition: Selling everything, everywhere, all at once.

Tobi Lütke on Uncapped with Jack Altman (#50).

Ben Thompson’s Stratechery interview with Michael Morton on e-commerce in the age of AI.

Shopify’s Tinker announcement and “Commerce at the speed of culture” data study.

Shopify at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference (September 2026).

The Graham-Dodd P/E Matrix.

Our updated Shopify valuation model.

Check out our previous Intrinsic Value breakdowns: Amazon, Sea Limited, Mercado Libre, Coupang.

Portfolio Review ⁠⁠Submit Tool⁠⁠.

Related ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠books⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ mentioned in the podcast.

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Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O'Malley follow up last year's TransDigm pitch with the biggest monopoly in aviation: GE Aerospace (NYSE: GE), the engine maker behind nearly three out of every four commercial flights in the world. With roughly 50,000 commercial and 30,000 military engines in service, GE has the largest installed engine base worldwide. That’s the reason Chris Hohn bets about 30% of his $50+ billion portfolio on it.

Daniel and Shawn dig into the mechanism behind how GE sells its engines at roughly zero margin because every engine comes back as three and a half times its sale price in spare parts and shop visits over 25 to 30 years. They also cover the Cold War deal that put a GE engine core in a locked room in France, how Larry Culp turned a company Nelson Peltz was sure would file for Chapter 11 into three companies worth more than $600 billion, and whether Heico's copycat parts and the regulators now circling the engine aftermarket can dent the pricing. In the end, they walk through the valuation model and decide whether the best business in aviation is worth its price — and whether GE earns a spot in The Intrinsic Value Portfolio.

IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

(00:00:00) Intro

(00:03:40) About the history of aviation and GE

(00:14:22) Why engines became a political product

(00:23:26) What makes GE such a great compounder

(00:24:26) Why the aftermarket is so attractive

(00:25:46) Why GE is the pinnacle of aerospace

(00:52:21) How CEOs destroyed and turned around the business

(01:01:50) What GE’s stock is worth

(01:10:08) Whether GE will be added to The Intrinsic Value Portfolio



Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.



BOOKS AND RESOURCES


If you are interested in a Community for investors to learn, share ideas, network, and join calls with experts: Apply for The Intrinsic Value Mastermind.

If you are interested in more personal meet-ups, meeting superinvestors, and discussing investing and things that go beyond: Apply for The Mastermind: Inner Circle.

Track ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Portfolio⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Check out Rijinkberg Investing.

Culp Capital Group Interview.

⁠Investing Breakdown’s Episode.

Check out our previous Intrinsic Value breakdowns Uber, Nike, Reddit, Nintendo, Airbnb, AutoZone, Alphabet, Ulta, John Deere, Madison Square Garden Sports.

Portfolio Review ⁠Submit Tool⁠.

Related ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠books⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ mentioned in the podcast.

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In today's episode, Kyle Grieve and Shawn O’Malley discuss Aritzia, the everyday luxury fashion brand that has become one of retail's most impressive compounders. They explore how a small boutique in the corner of a department store grew into a brand with exceptional store-based economics, a spotless balance sheet, and a huge untapped opportunity across America. With the stock falling even as the business posts some of its best growth ever, they debate whether this is a rare chance to own a durable compounder or a hot brand nearing its peak.

IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

(00:00:00) Intro

(00:01:41) What Lululemon's struggles reveal about investing in retail brands

(00:09:41) Why Aritzia's stores outsell most of their mall neighbours

(00:14:20) How Aritzia turned a tariff headache into rising margins

(00:20:20) Why some fashion brands fade while others keep compounding

(00:24:04) The one competitive advantage behind Aritzia's decades of growth

(00:47:28) Why management turned down cheap money when everyone else borrowed

(00:57:31) The biggest risk that could end Aritzia's run

(01:14:37) Valuation discussion on Aritzia

(01:19:08) Intrinsic value of Aritzia

(01:19:51) Whether Kyle & Shawn will add Aritzia to the Intrinsic Value Portfolio

Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.



BOOKS AND RESOURCES


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If you are interested in more personal meet-ups, meeting superinvestors, and discussing investing and things that go beyond: Apply for The Mastermind: Inner Circle.

Track ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Portfolio⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Check out our previous Intrinsic Value breakdowns: Lululemon, Nike, Hermes, LVMH.

Portfolio Review ⁠Submit Tool⁠.

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Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O'Malley revisit the two luxury houses they passed on last time — Hermès (EPA: RMS), the 189-year-old maker of the Birkin bag, and LVMH (EPA: MC), the 75-brand conglomerate behind Louis Vuitton, Dior, Tiffany, and Hennessy. Both stocks now sit near their lows: Hermès is down more than 50% from its February 2025 peak and trades at 32 times earnings for the first time in a decade, while LVMH has fallen to a five-year low after two straight years of declining sales — something that didn't even happen in 2009. The luxury industry has lost roughly 70 million customers since 2022, the Chinese market that tripled between 2017 and 2021 has been shrinking ever since, and a war in the Gulf emptied the stores on the Champs-Élysées of their best-spending tourists.

But some brands are growing. Daniel and Shawn work out why Richemont can grow 20% in the same quarter LVMH grows 3%, why Hermès still earns a 41% margin while LVMH's fashion and leather division has given back seven points of margin in five years, and why the top 0.1% of luxury clients keep spending while the aspirational buyer walks away. They also cover the Chinese property bust and its five-to-six-year playbook, and how prior luxury downturns in 2009, 2016, and 2020 ended. In the end, Daniel updates both valuation models and decides whether either Hermès or LVMH finally earns a spot in The Intrinsic Value Portfolio.



IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

(00:00:00) Intro

(00:00:41) About the state of the luxury market

(00:14:03) How Hermès’ business has done since our first pitch

(00:18:31) What makes LVMH and Hermès special

(00:26:59) How LVMH’s business has done since our first pitch

(00:29:00) How China is impacting the luxury market

(00:35:54) How long past luxury downturns were

(00:55:02) Why Hermès has an even better chance of recovering quickly

(01:01:43) Valuation discussion

(01:03:27) Intrinsic value of RMS

(01:05:02) Intrinsic value of LVMH

(01:05:25) Whether LVMH or RMS will be added to The Intrinsic Value Portfolio



Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.



BOOKS AND RESOURCES


If you are interested in a Community for investors to learn, share ideas, network, and join calls with experts: Apply for The Intrinsic Value Mastermind.

If you are interested in more personal meet-ups, meeting superinvestors, and discussing investing and things that go beyond: Apply for The Mastermind: Inner Circle.

Track ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Portfolio⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Portfolio Review ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Submit Tool⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Original Episode on Hermès.

Original Episode on LVMH.

BCG Sector Analysis.

Check out our previous Intrinsic Value breakdowns: Restoration Hardware, Formula One Group, Hermès, LVMH.

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In today’s episode, Kyle Grieve and Shawn O’Malley discuss HEICO and TransDigm, two dominant players in the aerospace components industry known for their pricing power and resiliency. They’ll compare how each company grows through acquisitions and organic expansion, how they approach debt and capital allocation, and what gives each business its durable competitive advantages. The discussion also covers the risks facing both companies, including regulatory scrutiny and reliance on continued aerospace demand, as well as potential sources of future growth.


IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

(00:00:00) Intro

(00:05:30) How TransDigm built its sole-source pricing power model

(00:09:00) How HEICO competes by underpricing original equipment manufacturers

(00:15:03) Why the aerospace industry has such high barriers to entry

(00:18:24) Why both companies rely heavily on acquisitions to grow

(00:25:33) How each company’s approach to debt differs sharply

(00:29:24) Why regulators have started scrutinizing TransDigm’s acquisition strategy

(00:42:43) What gives HEICO and TransDigm such durable competitive advantages

(00:47:20) How ownership and incentive structures shape each management team

(01:00:39) What risks could disrupt either company’s long runway of growth

(01:04:42) Where future growth could come from for both businesses

(01:09:52) Valuation discussion

(01:12:48) Intrinsic value of HEICO

(01:13:17) Whether Kyle & Shawn will add HEICO or TransDigm to the Intrinsic Value Portfolio

Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.



BOOKS AND RESOURCES


Join the exclusive ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Mastermind Community⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Track ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Portfolio⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Portfolio Review ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Submit Tool⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Listen to the TransDigm episode with Daniel and Shawn.

Listen to our HEICO episode with Clay Finck.

Listen to the TransDigm Foundations with Nicholas Howley.

Listen to TransDigm episode with Nicholas Howley.

Read The Compounders book.

Check out our previous Intrinsic Value breakdowns: Copart, Comfort Systems, SpaceX, Copa Holdings.

Related ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠books⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ mentioned in the podcast.

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